Analysis: Methot, Hammond keys to Senators' surge

Bobby Ryan could sense the Ottawa Senators were turning and starting to move in the right direction shortly before the All-Star break in late January.

Ottawa wasn't winning yet, but Ryan felt the Senators were playing strong through the neutral zone, with better layers of support, and using quick, crisp puck movement to suppress shots against.

Turnovers were starting to go down. Grade A scoring chances against were starting to go down. Shots against overall were starting to go down.

Ryan felt those trends were going to lead to success, to Ottawa winning the 3-2 games instead of losing them.

"I really thought that we were on the verge of turning this into something special and making a run," Ryan said in a phone interview Monday afternoon. "It's pretty great right now to be an Ottawa Senator."

It is because the Senators have done what Ryan thought they were capable of doing; they've gotten hot by playing a better overall game, by adhering to the responsibilities and system play that coach Dave Cameron started demanding of them when he replaced Paul MacLean on Dec. 8.

The Senators are 10-1-2 in their past 13 games and have climbed to within five points of a wild-card position in the Eastern Conference heading into their game Tuesday against the Boston Bruins. Ottawa was 14 points out Feb. 10, when its hot streak started.

Here are five reasons for the hows and whys behind Ottawa's resurgence:

Marc Methot

Defense - OTT

GOALS: 0 | ASST: 6 | PTS: 6
SOG: 30 | +/-: 9

The Senators are 14-8-3 in 25 games since defenseman Marc Methot returned to the lineup Jan. 8. They were 16-15-8 in 39 previous games, including two regulation losses with Methot in the lineup Dec. 4 and 6.

Methot's impact is significant in many areas, but most notably on Senators captain Erik Karlsson, whose production is greater when he has Methot as his defense partner.

Karlsson has a team-high 15 points in the past 13 games and 23 points with a plus-10 rating in the 25 games since Methot returned to the lineup. He had 27 points and a minus-9 rating in the 39 previous games prior.

Karlsson's 50 points are second to Kris Letang of the Pittsburgh Penguins (51) for most by a defenseman.

"Erik Karlsson plays much better with Methot than he has played with anyone else," said TSN analyst Ray Ferraro, who will call the Senators-Bruins game. "I think one of the reasons is he doesn't take it upon himself to play all over the ice. By his standards it's a more subdued game. You have to have the right personality to play with a risk-taker, and Methot embraces that. Karlsson takes chances on the ice that other guys won't, with a lot of reason being that they can't. He's capable of making something spectacular happen, but you've gotta have the other guy with you or it doesn't work."

Karlsson's possession numbers have also gone up significantly with Methot in the past 25 games. He has a 56.1 shot attempts percentage (SAT%) with Methot as his partner since Jan. 8; that's seventh in the NHL during that time span among players with 400 minutes played. Methot has a 55.1 SAT% in the same 25-game span.

Karlsson had a 50.0 SAT% in the first 39 games of the season, according to War-on-Ice.com

"I think you've seen two different players in [Karlsson]," Ryan said. "He was guilty, as I think we all were, of chasing the game and trying to take on more than he had to. With [Methot] back there it's just a calming influence for Karl as much as it is for everybody, but more so in Karl's situation. He knows he can take chances because he's got an elite defenseman back there. I think one of the most underrated things about Marc Methot is the way he sees the ice. He has gotten Karl into positions when Karl can already be on the attack before the pass is made because he knows he's going to get it from Marc. He's brought another element that I think we were truly missing from a defensive standpoint."

2. Cleaner zone exits, quicker pace

The Senators have been a better team of late because of the way they are exiting their defensive zone. Their zone exits have been cleaner, with fewer turnovers and a faster pace through the neutral zone.

"It's almost like something clicked for us like 10 or 12 games ago, maybe 15 games ago, where guys weren't feeling so strung out in the zone, they were on top of each other in the zone, and those short 5- to 10-foot passes started connecting," Ryan said. "It was almost like everybody on the team said, 'Wait a minute, I get it now.'"

It shows in their better possession totals, specifically in 5-on-5 play, according to game-by-game statistics provided by War-on-Ice.com.

In their 10-1-2 run the Senators have been generating 51.4 percent of the total shot attempts (SAT). They had a 49.5 SAT% in their first 51 games.

The nearly 2 percent difference isn't a dramatic change, but when you factor in Ottawa getting more saves at even strength (.939 save percentage in past 13 games, .925 save percentage in first 51 games) and scoring at a better percentage at even strength (9.6 percent shooting vs. 7.9 percent) it leads to more wins in general, hence the hot streak.

"When you play a smarter and safer game, it turns into a faster game," Ryan said. "You know you can push the pace coming out of the zone because that guy is going to be held accountable in getting the puck out and behind their defensemen and give you room to skate. You know the guys on the backcheck, the forwards, they're going to come back to help the defensemen. You see it all over the ice, we're playing a faster game because of the little attention to detail that we're paying."

3. Centers of attention

It's hard to win in the NHL when a team isn't getting production from either of its top two centers. Kyle Turris and Mika Zibanejad were not delivering enough for the Senators to consistently win until this 13-game stretch.

Turris has 14 points (six goals) in the past 13 games (1.07 points per game) with Milan Michalek and Mark Stone as his wings; he had 31 points in the previous 51 games (0.607 PPG).

Zibanejad has 11 points (four goals) in the past 13 games (0.846 PPG) with Ryan and Mike Hoffman as his wings; he had 26 points in his first 49 games (0.530 PPG).

"The two of them almost have a competition as to who is the No. 1 line of the night," Ryan said. "Mika, everybody has been able to see the kind of player he can become and he's starting to own that. He's taken that step in his development in the last couple months to really hold on to the puck, create offense below the dots. At the same time the way he skates in the middle of the ice makes it hard for defensemen to defend him. When the two of them are clicking at the same time, it doesn't make us a one-line team, which is what we had for a month."

4. 'Hamburglar' stole the show

Andrew Hammond

Goalie - OTT

RECORD: 7-0-1
GAA: 1.43 | SVP: .954

Hammond is 7-0-1 with a .954 save percentage and 1.43 goals-against average in nine appearances since making his season debut Feb. 16. He was 7-13-2 with a .898 save percentage and 3.51 GAA in 25 appearances with Binghamton of the American Hockey League this season.

Hammond made 21 saves in a 4-1 win against the Florida Panthers before making 60 saves in back-to-back shutouts in Southern California against the Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings. He followed that with 28 saves in a 4-2 win against the San Jose Sharks on Feb. 28.

"Once we won in Anaheim and obviously when he had his second shutout in L.A., we recognized he had a chance to do something pretty special, so the game [in San Jose] almost became more about, 'Let's do this for Hammy.' We definitely wanted to use that as a rallying effort as a team."

Hammond got the Senators a point with a 36-save performance in a 3-2 shootout loss against the Minnesota Wild on March 3. He then won back-to-back games against the Winnipeg Jets and Buffalo Sabres before coach Dave Cameron turned back to Craig Anderson, who will start Tuesday.

5. Balanced production

As much as Ottawa's centers have produced, the balance across the lineup has been another big reason why the Senators have gone 10-1-2 in their past 13 games.

Turris' linemates, Michalek and Stone, have combined for 27 points (nine goals); Stone has 14 points, and Michalek 13.

Zibanejad's linemates, Ryan and Hoffman, have combined for 26 points (10 goals). Hoffman has 14 points, and Ryan 12 in 12 games.

That's 53 points in 13 games from Ottawa's current top-six group of forwards, which is missing Clarke MacArthur (concussion).

In addition, Erik Condra has eight points in the past 13 games. Karlsson leads the defense with 15 points in the 13-game stretch, but Cody Ceci has contributed five points in the stretch.

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