Fantasy: Point-per-game scorers rising in 2014-15

By Matt Cubeta - NHL.com Fantasy Insider

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Fantasy: Point-per-game scorers rising in 2014-15
NHL.com fantasy expert Matt Cubeta looks at how more players are scoring at higher rates this season and whether or not they can keep it going.

Not since the 2007-08 NHL season have we seen so many players scoring at such a high rate. Back in that '07-08 season, players like Dany Heatley, Vincent Lecavalier and Marc Savard were household names in terms of point production. All three of them averaged at least a point per game that season. In fact, of players that appeared in at least 35 games in the '07-08 season, 23 of them ended up averaging at least one point per game.

After the '07-08 season, scoring seemed to drop a bit. In the 2011-12 season, only nine players that played in at least 35 games averaged over a point per game. And just last season, only 13 players accomplished the feat.

Point-Per-Game Production
Season Games Played
PPG Players
2014-15 at least 10 22
2013-14 at least 35 13
2012-13* at least 20 20
2011-12 at least 35 9
2010-11 at least 35 15
2009-10 at least 35 21
2008-09 at least 35 20
2007-08 at least 35 23
* 48-game season

Fast forward to this season and things seem to be looking up.

With most teams having played somewhere around 25-26 games this season, I used the benchmark that a player must have appeared in at least 10 of their team's games (approximately 40 percent). And at this moment, 22 players are averaging at least one point per game this season.

From Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby at the top of the list averaging 1.32 points-per-game to Chicago Blackhawks forward Kris Versteeg averaging exactly 1.00 point-per-game, we've seen plenty of household names among the 22 players, and plenty of unlikely, pleasant surprises. If you've been fortunate enough to have any of these guys on your fantasy team, it's likely helped you immensely in the standings. But can they keep it going for a full 82-game season? That is the big question.

Here's a look at whether or not I believe these players can sustain this type of production for the remainder of the regular season. (P.S. - selling high on some of the players I believe won't sustain the point-per-game production might not be a bad idea for fantasy owners).

PLAYER TEAM POINTS-PER-GAME SUSTAINABLE
Sidney Crosby, C 1.32 PPG
YES
Analysis: He's averaged over a PPG in every season he's played in. He'll keep it going and likely lead the group (assuming he stays healthy).
Jakub Voracek, RW
1.32 PPG
YES
Analysis: He's never done so in his career and I don't expect him to finish the season second in this category, but at this point, I'm a believer for this season. He and Claude Giroux seem to have some sort of magical connection.
Pavel Datsyuk, C/LW
1.21 PPG
NO
Analysis: He has 19 points in 15 games right now, but this one is a little interesting because of his injury history. While he has averaged at least a PPG in two of the past five seasons, he's missed 87 out of a potential 320 games during that time (26 percent of his team's games). I'm still saying he's going to be a PPG player this season, but that it won't be in a full season. Something like 50-60 games seems more likely.
Tyler Seguin, C/RW
1.24 PPG
YES
Analysis: He had 84 points in 80 games last season and his 11 multi-point games this season are tied for the most in the NHL.
Evgeni Malkin, C/RW
1.25 PPG
YES
Analysis: He's averaged over a PPG in all but one of his previous eight seasons.
Steven Stamkos, C/RW
1.12 PPG
YES
Analysis: He's averaged at least a PPG in every season since his rookie campaign in 2008-09.
Claude Giroux, C/RW
1.12 PPG
YES
Analysis: He has averaged at least a PPG in each of the past three seasons. He's also got an abnormally low shooting percentage (6.5) and even more startling even strength shooting percentage (1.41). He has just one goal during even strength play this season after putting home 21 in those situations last season. Expect these percentages to move closer to the norm as the season progresses.
Rick Nash, LW/RW
1.08 PPG
YES
Analysis: He's a different player and is playing consistently dominant hockey this season. He has a point in 19 of 24 games (third best among forwards). Nash has only accomplished the feat once in his career (2008-09), but he's still just 30 years old and in his prime.
Derek Stepan, C
1.08 PPG
NO
Analysis: He has 13 points in 12 games this season, just barely exceeding the 10-game benchmark. Keeping at this rate seems unlikely, but at some point in his career, he will be a PPG player.
Phil Kessel, RW
1.08 PPG
YES
Analysis: This will come down to the wire, but I think Kessel could be a 35-goal, 85-point player this season.
Vladimir Tarasenko, RW
1.04 PPG
NO
Analysis: No player has provided more excitement in the NHL than Tarasenko and he's certainly capable of scoring 40-plus goals this season, but I still think he falls short of the PPG mark.
Tyler Johnson, C/RW
1.04 PPG
NO
Analysis: He's thrived centering a line with Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov on his wings to the tune of 28 points in 27 games, but the second-year forward is unlikely to keep at this pace.
Mark Giordano, D
1.00 PPG
NO
Analysis: The last time a defenseman averaged at least a PPG over a full season was Mike Green in 2009-10 for the Washington Capitals (76 points in 75 games). Giordano is an elite defenseman, but he won't remain a PPG player.
Nicklas Backstrom, C
1.04 PPG
YES
Analysis: His 20 assists are tied for fifth most in the NHL, and having Alex Ovechkin on your wing helps. He's exceeded the PPG mark four times in his career.
Patrick Kane, C/RW
1.00 PPG
YES
Analysis: He had just 10 points in his first 16 games, but has 15 in his past nine. Somewhere in the middle will be the end result, meaning a fourth season averaging a PPG in his career.
Ryan Johansen, C/RW
1.04 PPG
YES
Analysis: This was the toughest call of the bunch, but he seems to have raised his game to a new level this season after posting 63 points last season. My concern is that he doesn't have a ton of talent around him in Columbus. However, he's still been able to record points in 16 of 25 games this season, proving his consistency regardless of who's on the ice with him.
Patric Hornqvist, RW
1.04 PPG
NO
Analysis: Riding shotgun with either Crosby or Malkin helps, but prior to joining the Penguins, he averaged 0.59 PPG in 363 games. Jumping to 1.00 is a stretch for the full season.
Filip Forsberg, C/LW/RW
1.00 PPG
NO
Analysis: The front-runner for the Calder Trophy has had a fantastic season, but averaging a PPG over a full season is a different story for a 20-year old rookie. Not since Malkin in 2006-07 have we seen a rookie average at least a PPG over a full season (he had 85 in 78 games) and only 34 rookies in NHL history have accomplished the feat (playing in at least 35 games), according to hockey-reference.com.
Corey Perry, RW
1.00 PPG
YES
Analysis: He's as good as a goal-scorer as you'll find and should be good for 82-plus points while playing alongside Ryan Getzlaf.
Ryan Callahan, RW
1.00 PPG
NO
Analysis: He's off to the best start of his career playing on a line with Stamkos, but he's never had more than 54 points in a single season.
Kris Versteeg, LW/RW
1.00 PPG
NO
Analysis: He's posted 14 points in the past eight games since being promoted to a line with Kane and Brad Richards, but clearly that kind of production is unsustainable for a full season for a player that's never averaged more than 0.76 in any season.
Zach Parise, LW
1.00 PPG
YES
Analysis: He hasn't achieved the feat since the 2009-10 season with the New Jersey Devils, but he looks fresher than ever with 19 points in 19 games for the Wild.

Based on my predictions, 14 of these 22 players would finish the season averaging over 1.00 point-per-game. However, there are a few players on the outside of the heralded point-per-game mark that I believe can join the exclusive group as the season progresses.

This list includes: Ryan Getzlaf, Henrik Zetterberg, Henrik Sedin, John Tavares, Jamie Benn, Taylor Hall and Joe Thornton.

With the addition of these eight players, that now puts my total at 21 players that will average at least one point per game in 2014-15. That's just short of the 2007-08 mark, but it would be the most in the past five years.

The season is a long ways away from being over and only time will tell whether or not these 22 players are capable of keeping at this high scoring rate.

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