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Breaking down the top 50 fantasy players

By Matt Cubeta - NHL.com Staff Writer

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Breaking down the top 50 fantasy players
NHL.com's Matt Cubeta breaks down the top 50 fantasy hockey players for the upcoming season.
"Everything has chains...absolutely nothing's changed."

Ah, little did Eddie Vedder know his famous line in Pearl Jam's "Corduroy" would be so applicable in the fantasy hockey world. Yet here we are again and Washington's Alex Ovechkin remains chained to the No. 1 fantasy rank -- year after year, Ovechkin reigns supreme.

Despite a relatively quiet season offensively for Ovechkin -- at least by his standards -- an MVP-season from Corey Perry, an NHL-best 104-point season from Daniel Sedin, and a 45-goal season by Steven Stamkos weren't enough to knock Ovechkin from his spot at the top of the charts.

Some will disagree, but truthfully, Sidney Crosby was the only other real option for the top spot, and with Crosby's health still undetermined, there really wasn't a safer play for No. 1. So much so, that all three of our fantasy experts each ranked Ovechkin as the top fantasy player heading into the 2011-12 season.

Having recorded at least 50 goals and 109 points in his three previous seasons, plus his ability to dominate the NHL in the shots on goal category every season, we believe in Ovechkin and think a bounce-back performance to his "usual" self is more than likely in 2011-12.

From Ovi to Sid and many others, below is our explanation for how our ranking of the top 50 fantasy players was put together.

The overall ranking order is based on NHL.com's composite rankings determined by Matt Cubeta, Sergei Feldman and Chris Foster. They will differ from NHL.com's previous positional rankings because those were solely Cubeta's rankings.

Rankings are based on a standard fantasy hockey league that includes a 6x4 scoring system: goals, assists, plus/minus, power-play points, shots on goal, penalty minutes, goalie wins, goals-against average, save percentage and shutouts.


Let the games begin: Fantasy league formats and strategies

Fantasy Rankings: Top 175 | Centers | Left Wings | Right Wings | Defensemen | Goalies

1. Alex Ovechkin, LW
Outlook: Hope for his average season over last four years and he's a shoe-in for top fantasy player: 51 G, 104 points, plus-26, 61 PIMs, 36 PPP and 427 SOG (includes last season's 32-goal, 85-point "down" season).

2. Steven Stamkos, C
Outlook: Increased penalty minutes total from 38 to 74 last season and hardly took a step back in his third NHL season after a monster sophomore campaign -- certainly could reach 50-goal plateau again.

3. Corey Perry, RW
Outlook: Last season's only 50-goal scorer has increased points total in every season since joining NHL in 2005 -- also totaled 104-plus PIMs for fourth straight season and 270-plus SOG for the third straight.

4. Daniel Sedin, LW
Outlook: As consistent a scorer as you'll find: last season's only 100-plus point player led NHL with 32 multi-point contests and 64 games of recording at least one point.

5. Henrik Sedin, C
Outlook: Regressed from 112 points in 2009-10 to 94 last season, but has appeared in all 82 games in six straight seasons. Henrik might not shoot a ton, but he could be one of the few to reach 100 points.

6.  Sidney Crosby, C
Outlook: Totaled 66 points in just 41 games last season and would be No. 1 fantasy player if not for health concerns heading into season -- expect top-10 fantasy production even if he misses some time.

7.  Evgeni Malkin, C
Outlook: Consecutive 100-point seasons were followed by consecutive injury-riddled seasons -- dedicated offseason training regimen could mean a return to form for the gifted center.

8.  Pavel Datsyuk, C
Outlook: Injury-plagued season limited Datsyuk to 59 points in 56 games, but strong playoffs (15 points in 11 games) has us believing he should be more than a point-per-game player in 2011-12.

9.  Martin St. Louis, RW
Outlook: Has increased points total in each of last three seasons, with last year's 99 being the second-most of his 12-season career -- only knock is his inability to record penalty minutes (12 last year).

10.  Henrik Zetterberg, C
Outlook: Unable to reach 30-goal mark in back-to-back seasons after hitting that mark four previous seasons, but his 80 points last season were most since posting 92 in 2007-08.

11.  Ryan Getzlaf, C
Outlook: Led NHL with 7 games with at least three assists (next closest was 4). Elite production when healthy: '07-08: 82 pts in 77 gms; '08-09: 91 pts in 82 gms; '09-10: 69 pts in 66 gms; '10-11: 76 pts in 67 gms.

12.  Henrik Lundqvist, G
Outlook: Our highest ranked goalie could produce best season yet on improved Rangers team -- last three years: second most games started, third most wins, 2.36 GAA, .920 SV% and 18 shutouts.

13.  Roberto Luongo, G
Outlook: Faces questions after inconsistent 2011 playoff performance, but Luongo is a regular-season beast, with last season arguably being the best of his career: 38 W, 2.11 GAA, .928 SV% and 4 shutouts.

14.  Zach Parise, LW
Outlook: Disregard last season's knee injury and look at the average of his previous two seasons: 42 G, 88 points, plus-27, 28 PPP, 356 SOG -- 50-goal season isn't far-fetched for the 27-year-old.

15.  Jonathan Toews, C
Outlook: Will contribute heavily in every statistic except PIMs -- had 32 G, 76 points, plus-25, 25 power play points and 233 SOG last season -- all of which were career-highs except goals.

16.  Brad Richards, C
Outlook: After totaling 91 points in 80 games in 2009-10 and 77 points in 72 games last season, Richards takes his game to New York this season, where he should team up with Marian Gaborik for plenty of points.

17.  Ilya Kovalchuk, LW
Outlook: Last season's 31 goals marked first time since 2002-03 that he scored fewer than 41 goals. However, he finished strong with 17 goals and 31 points in his final 33 games.

18.  Jarome Iginla, RW
Outlook: Bounced back tremendously last season by increasing points total from 69 in 2009-10 to 86 last season, and finished with 20 points in final 12 games -- may regress a bit, but he remains an elite forward.

19.  Anze Kopitar, C
Outlook: At age 24, he's the focal point of a revamped Kings lineup. Kopitar could have his best season yet after tallying 358 points in 393 games in his first five seasons.

20.  Ryan Kesler, C
Outlook: Last season's efforts should have been expected after he posted 75 points in 2009-10 -- likely won't score 40-plus goals again, but 80 points with tons of PIMs and SOG is attainable.

21.  Tim Thomas, G
Outlook: At age 37 and with Tuukka Rask waiting for his turn, Thomas may see fewer starts this season, but he still led NHL with 2.00 GAA, and his .938 SV% was a new NHL record last season.

22.  Pekka Rinne, G
Outlook: Over last three seasons he's averaged 2.33 GAA, .920 SV%, and is tied for NHL lead with 20 shutouts -- expect approximately 70 starts in 2011-12 with similar statistics to last season.

23.  Nicklas Backstrom, C
Outlook: Likely won't match 2009-10 season (33 G, 101 points), but should return to 80-point form this season after slumping to worst offensive output of four-season career in 2010-11 (18 G, 65 points).

24.  Eric Staal, C
Outlook: Since bursting into NHL with 100 points in 2005-06, averge numbers for last five seasons: 79 games played, 34 G, 41 A, 62 PIMs, 27 PPP, 309 SOG -- only weakness is plus/minus category.

25.  Zdeno Chara, D
Outlook: Our highest ranked defenseman is a source of consistency -- at least 41 points every season since 2002-03, at least 87 PIMs every season since 2000-01 and 200-plus SOG every season since 2005-06.

26.  Patrick Kane, RW
Outlook: Heated up later in last season's campaign (36 points in final 32 games) and finished with 73 points in 73 contests overall -- gut instinct says best season coming in '11-12.

27.  Rick Nash, RW
Outlook: Scored fewest goals (32) since 2006-07 and recorded fewest PIMs (34) of career -- will likely be playing alongside Jeff Carter, which should bring a new element to Columbus, but can they co-exist?

28.  Bobby Ryan, LW
Outlook: Notched career-highs 71 points and 270 SOG last season while also chipping in 61 PIMs -- numbers should continue to increase if given full-time spot on a line with Perry and Getzlaf.

29.  Shea Weber, D
Outlook: He's scored at least 16 goals in all five of his full NHL seasons and has averaged 18 goals, 48 points, a plus-3 rating, 57 PIMs, 19 PPP and 242 SOG over the last three seasons.

30.  Mike Richards, C
Outlook: Five-tool player should bounce back with new team after having arguably his worst fantasy season since breakout 2007-08 campaign -- expect a return to 30-goal form if he's on a line with Kopitar.

31.  Nicklas Lidstrom, D
Outlook: Ageless wonder put together best season since 2007-08 last season -- with no sign of slowing down, expect another 60-point season and an improved plus/minus (minus-2 last season).

32.  Dustin Byfuglien, D
Outlook: Might regress in goals and points (20 and 53 last season), but still should contribute plenty of PIMs and SOG -- his 347 shots last season trailed only Alex Ovechkin's 367.

33.  Patrick Marleau, LW
Outlook: Totaled second most multi-goal games in NHL last season (10) and his 119 goals the last three seasons are the second-most in the League. And he's still just 31 years old.

34.  Jeff Carter, C
Outlook: Three-season average has been spectacular: 38 G, 70 points, plus-17, 48 PIMs, 21 PPP and 332 SOG -- similar style to Nash could be a cause of concern and plus/minus likely to decrease with Blue Jackets.

35.  Marian Gaborik, RW
Outlook: Netted just 22 goals in an injury-plagued 2010-11 season after posting 42 goals in first season with NYR -- now paired with Brad Richards, Gaborik should reach 40-goal mark with plenty of PPP.

36.  Carey Price, G
Outlook: Tied for League lead with 38 wins last season, was third in games started (70) and shutouts (eight) -- shocked many last season, but prior to breakout campaign, career GAA was 2.73; can he do it again?

37.  Claude Giroux, C
Outlook: Increased point total from 47 in 2009-10 to team-best 76 last season -- with departures of Richards and Carter, he's now Philadelphia's top offensive weapon, and should continue to increase production.

38.  Ryan Miller, G
Outlook: Expect numbers closer to his '09-10 season (41 W, 2.22 GAA, .929 SV%, 5 SO) than his 2010-11 season (34 W, 2.59 GAA, .916 SV%, 5 SO) -- he could be one of the few goalies to start 70 games.

39.  Dany Heatley, LW
Outlook: Arguably had worst season of nine-year career in 2010-11 (26 G, 64 points) -- losing playmaker Joe Thornton could hurt in trade from Sharks to Wild, but Mikko Koivu could also bring back his scoring touch.

40.  Joe Thornton, C
Outlook: Recorded at least 86 points in previous five seasons until last season's disappointing 70-point effort -- PIMs aren't what they used to be and doesn't shoot often, but his assists and PPP will be there.

41.  Alexander Semin, RW
Outlook: High risk/high reward player has played more than 70 games just twice in six seasons -- extremely talented, but his production dropped in every category except PIMs from 2009-10 to last season.

42.  David Backes, C
Outlook: Five-tool player has similar skill-set to Corey Perry and re-discovered his scoring touch from 2008-09 last season: 31 G, 31 A, plus-32 (2nd in NHL), 93 PIMs, 211 SOG -- we believe in him.

43.  Danny Briere, C
Outlook: Coming off career-highs in goals (34), plus/minus (plus-20) and SOG (246) -- with the departures of Mike Richards and Jeff Carter, he should see more power-play ice time (3:04 per game last season).

44.  Marc-Andre Fleury, G
Outlook: Averages 36 wins over last three seasons, and is coming off career-best 2.32 GAA last season -- subtract rough October (1-5-0 record, 3.35 GAA, .863 SV%) and last season's stat line would look even better.

45.  Martin Brodeur, G
Outlook: Recorded first losing record of career in 2010-11 and also had second worst GAA (2.45) and SV% (.903) -- NJ blue line isn't what it used to be, but a healthy offense should help Brodeur get more wins.

46.  Drew Doughty, D
Outlook: After breakout 2009-10 season, regressed to "just" 11 goals and 40 points last campaign -- elite offensive playmaker could challenge for scoring title among defensemen in 2011-12.

47.  Marian Hossa, RW
Outlook: Has appeared in just 122 games over last two seasons, but healthy season could result in first 30-goal campaign since netting 40 with Detroit in 2008-09 -- loves to shoot and will have solid plus/minus.

48.  Patrick Sharp, C
Outlook: After scoring just 25 goals in 2009-10, he bounced back for 34 goals and a career-high 71 points in 74 contests -- expect another 30-goal season with around 70 points and 250-plus SOG.

49.  Keith Yandle, D
Outlook: Increased points, PIMs, PPP and SOG in every season since joining NHL full-time in 2008-09. His 11-goal, 59-point output last season put him among the League's best d-men -- expect more of the same.

50.  Milan Lucic, LW
Outlook: After a disappointing and injury-plagued 2009-10 campaign (50 games, 20 points), Lucic rebounded to produce an extremely similar stat line to Backes last season -- 30 G, 32 A, plus-28, 121 PIMs, 173 SOG.


Contact Matt Cubeta at MCubeta@nhl.com


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RANK TEAM PLAYER
1. Sidney crosby
2. Steven Stamkos
3. Corey Perry
4. Evgeni Malkin
5. Ryan Getzlaf

COMPLETE RANKINGS | MOCK DRAFT ANALYSIS