Fantasy Forecast for Thursday,
November 19

WEDNESDAY'S ROUNDUP:

I'm not really a doctor. I just play one when writing about fantasy hockey.

The season-long injury parade hit another peak with the news of several new ailments and the depressing diagnosis of ongoing injuries to a hoard of fantasy-useful players.

In spite of the carnage, 10 NHL teams somehow totaled 32 goals Wednesday. I don't know about you, but very few of those few goals counted for my fantasy team(s), and I lost my grip on first place by one point in the competitive Yahoo! Friends and Family League. I had to put Alexander Semin on injured reserve, and the best replacement I could find at the moment was Wayne Simmonds of the Kings.

Let's grab some charts and make the rounds ...

Kings left wing Ryan Smyth (22 games, 9-14-23, owned in 93 percent of all Yahoo! leagues), who sat out Wednesday's 3-2 loss to the Flyers, is expected to be sidelined a month with an undisclosed upper-body injury. "It could be up to four weeks with that," coach Terry Murray said. "It's very unfortunate that you lose a player that's an important player for your team, that's going to be out up to that length of time. But you know, you take a look around the League, there's all kinds of injuries to top players. You've got to deal with it. It's part of the game."

Getting back to Semin, the Capitals' star left wing has a "sore" right wrist that was in a brace Wednesday. An MRI exam revealed no serious damage, but GM George McPhee told the Washington Post Semin (18, 9-8-17, 98 percent) likely will miss games Friday and Saturday against Montreal and Toronto, respectively, after missing Tuesday's win against the Rangers. "The wrist got sore (but) it's not from a blow or anything," McPhee said. "He just tweaked it."

You won't believe this, but Pittsburgh's last remaining healthy defenseman, Mark Eaton, did not participate in the morning skate at Scotiabank Place in advance of Thursday's game at Ottawa and is listed as a game-time decision, reports the team Web site. Eaton (21, 2-3-5, 1 percent) is suffering from back spasms. However, here's the good news -- the Pens' best defender, Sergei Gonchar (9, 2-6-8, 76 percent) will play his first game since suffering a broken wrist Oct. 20.

Vancouver left wing Daniel Sedin (4, 0-4-4, 96 percent), out since Oct. 8 with a broken foot, will not play Friday as initially projected. The home contest against Colorado will be his 18th straight game missed. Sedin's new target date is Sunday at home against Chicago and he'll probably be a game-time decision. "Everyone thinks it was more of a setback, but I had to try," said Sedin, who was with the team for a portion of its five-game road trip in hopes of playing, but never was comfortable enough to suit up. You can watch a video of Sedin talking to the media here.

Panthers coach Peter DeBoer told the South Florida Sun Sentinel that left wing David Booth suffered a setback in his recovery from a concussion sustained Oct. 24. Booth (9, 2-1-3, 57 percent) was cleared to begin light workouts but then was stopped. He has missed the last 10 games. "We've kind of taken our foot off the gas and given him a few days off before we look to go back at it again," DeBoer said. "But that's anticipated. We knew going through this process there was going to be good days and bad."

Fantasy owners of Brian Gionta will be without the Canadiens forward indefinitely. He has a broken bone in his left foot and was on crutches at Montreal's practice facility Wednesday. Gionta (19, 8-5-13, 74 percent) was hit on the foot by a shot in a game against Atlanta on Nov. 3 and played the next four games in pain. He already has sat out the last two contests. "It's a fast game and a lot of things happen," Gionta told the Montreal Gazette. "We have pads all over and we have injuries all the time. There's only so much you can do to prevent injuries."

Having already missed the last seven games, Hurricanes center Eric Staal (13, 3-2-5, 95 percent) is at least another week away from returning from an upper-body injury. Starting goalie Cam Ward (15, 2-9-3, 2.97 GAA, 79 percent) has missed the last four contests with a leg laceration, and GM Jim Rutherford said his target return date is Dec. 5. Even backup goalie Michael Leighton (5, 1-2-0, 4.38 GAA, 2 percent) is out with a groin injury, leading to the signing of free agent veteran Manny Legace and the promotion of two goalies from the minors Wednesday -- Justin Peters from Albany (AHL) and Mike Morrison from Florida (ECHL).
   
Devils forward Patrik Elias has played five of the last six games, and even had 2 assists in the team's most recent contest, but he admitted to the (Newark) Star-Ledger that "I don't know if I'll ever feel 100-percent this year." Elias (5, 0-2-2, 91 percent) had hip and groin surgery June 12 and arthroscopic groin surgery in September. "The best part is I know I can play the next game now after I play. But I still feel just all right, not great. I just play. Sometimes it hurts and sometimes it doesn't. I just have to stay patient."

Atlanta's goalie rotation for the next two games is Ondrej Pavelec (13, 6-5-1, 2.90 GAA, 44 percent) at home against Boston on Thursday, and Johan Hedberg (7, 4-1-0, 2.63 GAA, 4 percent) at home against Pittsburgh on Saturday. "It makes tough decisions, but that means that's a good thing," coach John Anderson told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "You've got a tough decision to make on two good players. If you see our schedule, they'll both get time."

The Blue Jackets also have a set goalie rotation -- Steve Mason (14, 7-5-2, 3.67 GAA, 86 percent) at Dallas on Thursday, and Mathieu Garon (8, 4-1-0, 2.46 GAA, 12 percent) at Nashville on Saturday.

The St. Petersburg Times reports Mike Smith (9, 3-3-3, 3.33 GAA, 31 percent) will make a second straight start for the Lightning on Thursday at Anaheim, a reward from coach Rick Tocchet. "Smitty is going to take the ball," he said. "But (Antero Niittymaki) is going to play, too."

Remember Maxime Talbot? He debuts for the Penguins on Thursday at Ottawa, finally recovered from offseason surgery on his left shoulder. With career-highs of 13 goals and 26 points, he's moderately fantasy-useful. "It will definitely be nice to see him back out there," teammate Pascal Dupuis told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "Max is a special guy. He brings that energy and plays the game with so much speed. We need him." Pittsburgh's Web site projects Talbot (1 percent) to play on a line with Matt Cooke and Craig Adams.

As has been speculated all this week, the Bruins may get back left wing Milan Lucic (6, 0-3-3, 49 percent) for Thursday's game at Atlanta, but there has not been an official announcement as of yet.

Ducks center Ryan Getzlaf (19, 2-20-22, 98 percent) had 3 assists in his first seven games. Since then, he's taken off to the tune of 2-17-19 in 12 games, and he scored at least one point in 11 of those contests.

The Washington Times reports goalie Jose Theodore (14, 5-3-4, 3.24 GAA, 52 percent) returned to practice Wednesday, a day after taking leave from the team to tend to a personal matter, but McPhee said Theodore could miss the next two contests, which may be split between Semyon Varlamov (10, 8-1-1, 2.59 GAA, 71 percent) and recent call-up Michal Neuvirth (zero percent).

Leading defense scorers for November

Through Wednesday's games
Chris Pronger (PHI), 7 games, 2-6-8
Mike Green (WSH), 7 games, 1-7-8
Niklas Kronwall (DET), 7 games, 3-4-7
Duncan Keith (CHI), 6 games, 2-5-7
Lubomir Visnovsky (EDM), 8 games, 2-5-7
Dan Boyle (SJS), 9 games, 2-5-7
Anton Stralman (CLM), 7 games, 1-6-7

THURSDAY'S PROJECTED GOALIES:

Toronto (Jonas Gustavsson) at Carolina (Manny Legace), 7 p.m. ET (TSN)
Boston (Tim Thomas) at Atlanta (Ondrej Pavelec), 7 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh (Marc-Andre Fleury) at Ottawa (Pascal Leclaire), 7:30 p.m. ET (TSN2, RDS)
Phoenix (Ilya Bryzgalov) at St. Louis (Chris Mason), 8 p.m. ET
New Jersey (Martin Brodeur) at Nashville (Pekka Rinne), 8 p.m. ET
Columbus (Steve Mason) at Dallas (Marty Turco), 8:30 p.m. ET
Chicago (Cristobal Huet) at Calgary (Miikka Kiprusoff), 9:30 p.m. ET (TSN)
Tampa Bay (Mike Smith) at Anaheim (Jonas Hiller), 10 p.m. ET

RECENT INJURIES:

Arron Asham, RW, Philadelphia: Is day-to-day with a strained oblique muscle.
Brian Gionta, RW, Montreal: Is out indefinitely with a broken bone in his foot.
Alex Goligoski, D, Pittsburgh: Will be out 2-3 weeks with a lower-body injury.
Michael Leighton, G, Carolina: Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Matthew Lombardi, C, Phoenix: Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Jay McKee, D, Pittsburgh: Will be sidelined 2-4 weeks with an infected finger.
Mattias Ohlund, D, Tampa Bay: Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Joni Pitkanen, D, Carolina: Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Alexander Semin, LW, Washington: Is day-to-day with a right wrist injury.
Devin Setoguchi, RW, San Jose: Is day-to-day with a leg injury.
Ryan Smyth, LW, Los Angeles: Is sidelined a month with an upper-body injury.
Scott Walker, RW, Carolina: Is day-to-day with an upper-body injury.

TRANSACTIONS:

Anaheim Ducks: Recalled C MacGregor Sharp from Bakersfield (ECHL). Reassigned LW Matt Beleskey, RW Troy Bodie and D Brett Festerling from San Antonio (AHL) to Toronto (AHL). Assigned LW Ryan Donally from San Antonio (AHL) to Bakersfield (ECHL).
Atlanta Thrashers: Assigned D Boris Valabik to Chicago (AHL) for a conditioning assignment.
Carolina Hurricanes: Placed G Cam Ward on long-term injured reserve. Placed C Eric Staal on injured reserve. Recalled F Patrick Dwyer and G Justin Peters from Albany (AHL). Recalled G Mike Morrison from Florida (ECHL). Assigned F Tim Conboy to Albany (AHL).
Chicago Blackhawks: Recalled LW Bryan Bickell from Rockford (AHL).   
Columbus Blue Jackets: Activated F Raffi Torres from injured reserve.
Minnesota Wild: Recalled RW Danny Irmen from Houston (AHL).
Montreal Canadiens: Reassigned D Mathieu Carle to Hamilton (AHL).
New Jersey Devils: Recalled D Tyler Eckford from Lowell (AHL). Assigned D Cory Murphy to Lowell (AHL).
Pittsburgh Penguins: Recalled D Chris Lee from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL). Recalled F T.J. Fox from Wheeling (ECHL).
San Jose Sharks: Reassigned F Benn Ferriero, F Jamie McGinn and F Logan Couture to Worcester (AHL).
Washington Capitals: Recalled D John Carlson from Hershey (AHL).

NHL.COM EXPERTS LEAGUE:

Week 7 results through Nov. 18
Philly Cheesestakes 6, Rocky Trottier 3 (2 ties)
Skoula Hard Knocks 5, No Shanahan-igans 5 (1 tie)
Clown Shoes 7, Ovi's Heroes 2 (2 ties)
Hammerhead United 5, Hempstead Slowpokes 2 (4 ties)
Out on a Dan Hinote 8, The Birdcage 1 (2 ties)
Big Skillets O'BKLYN 9, Code Monkeys 1 (1 tie)

E-MAIL OF THE DAY:

What are your thoughts on dropping Shane Doan (RW)? I need a defenseman for two weeks to replace Alex Goligoski who is out. My players are Anze Kopitar (C), Pavel Datsyuk (C), Ryan Kesler (C), Patrick Sharp (C-RW), Tomas Holmstrom (RW), and I'm heavy on the LW side with Ilya Kovalchuk, Ryan Malone, Matt Moulson, and James van Riemsdyk. On defense I have Goligoski, Christian Ehrhoff, Roman Hamrlik and Jason Demers with no other subs.
Thanks,
-- Daniel

No way! I can't be more emphatic than that. No way you or anybody else should cut Shane Doan (21, 5-9-14). You're essentially giving away a very useful fantasy right wing to the first team in your league that will claim him off the scrap heap. And for what? A fill-in defenseman for the next two weeks? Goligoski is probably 14 days away with a lower-body injury. And when Goligoski returns, would you cut his replacement and then go fishing in the free-agent pool for another right wing? You won't find one anywhere near as useful as Doan.

I know all too well how insane the injury parade has been this fantasy season. My own teams have not gone unmarked, and in some leagues I have more guys on injured reserve than my league allows injured-reserve spots. But if the prognosis for return is no longer than four weeks and the injured player is a known commodity (think first 7-10 rounds of a standard 10-team fantasy league), then that player most likely should not be cut.

Your first responsibility is to work out a trade. Aside from that, I'd rather cut Moulson than Doan. Yes, I know Moulson has 10 goals and 8 assists in 21 games, but there is no track record there to go on. I doubt he'll become a 50-goal scorer and make me eat my words, but I also doubt Moulson will become a 30-goal scorer. Taking that a step further, I'd rather play two weeks with an injured Goligoski in my active lineup than cut Doan.

Lastly, there is a good reason by Doan is owned in 93 percent of all Yahoo! leagues, and Moulson is owned in only 54 percent.

Also, I have to point out the declining value of Demers. In his first 10 games, he had 8 assists. In 13 games since, Demers has a goal and 3 assists. This trend is not uncommon for a rookie defenseman.

---------------------

Have a fantasy question you want answered? Want advice on a trade proposal, or have a hot tip you want to share with the NHL.com fantasy community? Write to us at fantasy@nhl.com and your question may be answered in the Fantasy Forecast.