Fantasy Forecast for Tuesday, November 3

MONDAY'S ROUNDUP:

For fantasy owners of Maple Leafs winger Phil Kessel, Tuesday will feel like Christmas morning. You've known forever that the present under the tree was waiting to be unwrapped, and now that day is here.

Kessel (owned in 82 percent of all Yahoo! leagues) is expected to make his Toronto and season debut at home against Tampa Bay, weeks ahead of the original timetable after having offseason surgery for a torn rotator cuff and labrum.

At Monday's practice, he skated on a line with center Matt Stajan and left wing Jason Blake.
"If I play, I'm going to be pretty excited," Kessel said Monday.

"Obviously, he's a skilled guy," defenseman Tomas Kaberle told the Globe and Mail. "He showed he can score 30, 40, 50 goals a year. It's going to be a big help for us. Hopefully, he's healthy enough. He's got potential."

NHL.com's Dan Rosen has more details in this story.

The latest on injured Capitals star Alex Ovechkin is that he will be out week-to-week with an upper-body strain. He will not be in uniform for Wednesday's game at New Jersey.

Ovechkin (14 games, 14-9-23, 99 percent), the NHL's leading scorer, appeared to hurt his left shoulder or left arm in the second period of Sunday's 5-4 overtime loss against Columbus. He received treatment and underwent an MRI exam at Washington's practice facility on Monday.
"We have to buckle down," coach Bruce Boudreau said. "A goal a game he scores, so we got to play better defense and cannot allow four or five goals a game. You have to win 3-1 and 2-1 and if you get lucky sometimes make it a 4-2 game. I think we have enough character players who understand what we will have to do without Alex."

Wednesday's contest will be only the third Ovechkin has missed due to injury since his rookie season of 2005-06. He missed two other games last season for personal reasons.

Wednesday's Washington-New Jersey game could also mark the return of another All-Star left wing. Devils coach Jacques Lemaire offered hope that Patrik Elias could make his season debut against the Capitals at Prudential Center. "Latest by the weekend, I would say," Lemaire told the team's Web site. "It won't be long. We'll go day to day because he could make a huge improvement from one day to another and then he's ready to play."

Elias (91 percent) has not played since September surgery to break up scar tissue in his groin. On Monday, he practiced with his teammates for the first time this season, skating on a line with Travis Zajac and David Clarkson.

"Nobody's said a word," Elias said of this return date. "I haven't practiced, I haven't played a game in five months. I don't think two practices will do it."

Ottawa's top center, Jason Spezza (10, 0-8-8, 92 percent), did not practice with the team on Monday and probably will not see game action for another week, reports the Ottawa Sun. He has already missed the Senators' last two games with an upper-body injury, and likely will not play on Thursday against Tampa Bay and Saturday against New Jersey. The paper reports the injury is a back issue.

With two players returning to the lineup, Stars coach Marc Crawford is changing up his lines for the next game on Wednesday against Calgary, reports the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Jere Lehtinen, who had been out with a rib-cage muscle injury, practiced with Mike Ribeiro and Brenden Morrow on Monday. Steve Ott, returning from a two-game suspension, is paired with Jamie Benn and Mike Modano, who hasn't played since Oct. 3. Center Brad Richards (groin) and winger Loui Eriksson (flu-like symptoms) were excused from Monday's practice. "This gives us some solid options," Crawford said.

The Boston Globe reports that the Bruins tinkered with their lines at practice in advance of Tuesday's heavyweight showdown in Detroit. For the first time this season, Patrice Bergeron and Marco Sturm were on the same line, practicing with Mark Recchi on the No. 1 unit. "Obviously we have to score more goals," said Sturm. "Me and Bergy have played together for a long time. So we're mixing things up and see if we can score more goals." Julien also reunited last season's No. 2 line of Blake Wheeler, David Krejci, and Michael Ryder. They haven't been together since the fifth game of this season.

Since he returned from an upper-body injury, Sabres star Thomas Vanek (9, 4-1-5, 92 percent) has only one goal in five games. He and linemates Derek Roy and Drew Stafford took 12 shots in last Saturday's 5-0 loss at the Islanders. "We could have had eight the other night," Roy (11, 0-8-8, 84 percent) told the Buffalo News. "We hit two posts, missed some point-blank opportunities, some two-on-ones. Those we've got to put in the net."

Newsday reports on the lines from Monday's Rangers practice -- Marian Gaborik, Vaclav Prospal and Enver Lisin; Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan and Sean Avery; and Chris Drury, Ales Kotalik and Dane Byers.

Flyers All-Star left wing Simon Gagne (9, 1-4-5, 80 percent) will have surgery Tuesday to repair abdominal and groin muscles and will miss about 6-to-8 weeks. NHL.com's Adam Kimelman has all the details here from Philadelphia.

Frequent Fantasy Forecast readers should know by now that the art of fantasy is mostly about predicting, not reacting. So do not, I repeat, do not bother to put in a waiver claim for Islanders defenseman Brendan Witt (14, 2-1-3, zero percent). That two-goal game he recorded on Monday against Edmonton couldn't have been predicted even if a Rhodes Scholar and a Himalayan shaman joined forces. We're talking about a bruising blueliner who had 23 goals in 861 career games entering Monday's action, and Witt's last goal was on Jan. 22, 2008 -- that's 92 games ago. His single-season high is 3 goals, so maybe he has one more in him. If you know when it's going to happen, please drop me a line.


TUESDAY'S PROJECTED GOALIES:

Boston (Tim Thomas) at Detroit (Chris Osgood), 7:00 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay (Antero Niittymaki) at Toronto (Jonas Gustavsson), 7:30 p.m. ET
Atlanta (Ondrej Pavelec) at Montreal (Carey Price), 7:30 p.m. ET
NY Rangers (Henrik Lundqvist) at Vancouver (Andrew Raycroft), 10:00 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh (Marc-Andre Fleury) at Anaheim (Jonas Hiller), 10:00 p.m. ET


RECENT INJURIES:

Daniel Briere, C, Philadelphia:   Is day-to-day with a groin strain.
Matt D'Agostini, RW, Montreal:   Is day-to-day with a head injury.
Nikita Filatov, LW, Columbus:   Is day-to-day with a back injury.
Simon Gagne, LW, Philadelphia:   Is sidelined 6-to-8 weeks with a double hernia.
Michael Grabner, RW, Vancouver:   Sidelined indefinitely with an ankle injury.
Ron Hainsey, D, Atlanta: Is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury.
Georges Laraque, RW, Montreal:   Is day-to-day with a back injury.
Johnny Oduya, D, New Jersey:   Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Alex Ovechkin, RW, Washington: Is week-to-week with an upper-body strain.
Eric Staal, C, Carolina:   Is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury.
Shea Weber, D, Nashville:   Is day-to-day with a foot injury.


TRANSACTIONS:

NHL: Suspended Anaheim Ducks D James Wisniewski for two games.
Anaheim Ducks:   Reassigned LW Matt Beleskey to San Antonio (AHL).
Colorado Avalanche:   Assigned F Brian Willsie to Lake Erie (AHL).
Montreal Canadiens:   Recalled D Mathieu Carle from Hamilton (AHL).
New Jersey Devils:   Assigned F Matt Halischuk to Lowell (AHL).
San Jose Sharks:   Reassigned LW Jamie McGinn and C Logan Couture to Worcester (AHL).
Vancouver Canucks:   Signed free agent F Matt Pettinger.
Washington Capitals:   Recalled C Mathieu Perreault from Hershey (AHL). Reassigned C Keith Aucoin to Hershey.


NHL.COM EXPERTS LEAGUE:

Week 5 results through Nov. 2
Rocky Trottier 11 vs. Code Monkeys 0
Skoula Hard Knocks 3 vs. Out on a Dan Hinote 3 (5 ties)
Clown Shoes 4 vs. No Shanahan-igans 2 (5 ties)
Hempstead Slowpokes 5 vs. The Birdcage 0 (6 ties)
Big Skillets O'BKLYN 3 vs. Ovi's Heroes 6 (2 ties)
Hammerhead United 0 vs. Philly Cheesestakes 4 (7 ties)


EMAIL OF THE DAY:

I have two questions for you. Right know on my fantasy team, the two least productive players I have at the moment are Philadelphia's Scott Hartnell and Bobby Ryan of Anaheim. Dustin Penner is a free agent in my league right know, and I am thinking about dropping Hartnell to pick him up. So my first question is, do you think Penner's fast start will carry through the season or do you think he will revert back to his average stats he has put up his entire career, and do you think dropping Hartnell for him would be a good move?

My other question is, do you think Bobby Ryan will come out of his slump and end up putting up numbers better than last year or do you think I might be better off looking to trade him or drop him for a more productive free agent?
Thanks,
-- Ryan Carr

The dreaded slow starts, and two of them to boot. Who would have believed before the season began that Penner would outscore Hartnell and Ryan combined in the first month?
The reservations about Penner, currently sixth in the League in scoring, are understandably justified. Season after season of underachieving, and suddenly he drops 19 points on us in 14 games. How are we supposed to react? Consider that Penner (15, 9-10-19) is currently owned in only 86 percent of all Yahoo! leagues, so yes, there are still skeptics.

I would try to add Penner if he's available, but only at the expense of a player with a questionable track record, and I don't put Hartnell (12, 4-7-11) and Ryan (12, 4-3-7) in that category. These are fantasy studs off to slow starts. Even when struggling, both are far too big of a name to simply cut, and both will be scooped up in minutes. You don't want to lose out on whatever fantasy value they retain at the moment to add Penner, who may or may not revert back to his pre 2009-10 form.
I understand the need to be aggressive with player movement in fantasy, more so in rotisserie than in head-to-head. But my gut says cutting Hartnell or Ryan is not in your best interest. Also, trading either would do you no good without receiving equal value, something that won't be easy to go given their struggles.

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