Fantasy Forecast for Friday, October 30

THURSDAY'S ROUNDUP:

With a 32-save performance on Thursday against St. Louis, Coyotes goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov earned his League-leading third shutout and tied his single-season career-high in only 10 games. In posting three shutouts each in 2007-08 and 2008-09, the veteran netminder played 64 and 65 games, respectively.

"They came out with everything they had near the end, you've got to expect that," Bryzgalov said of the Blues. "Fortunately, we were able to get the job done and hold on."
"A lot of saves, he was excellent," St. Louis defenseman Eric Brewer said. "We just couldn't get nothing by him."

Earlier this season Bryzgalov (10 games, 7-3-0, owned in 87 percent of all Yahoo! leagues) victimized Pittsburgh and San Jose, both on the road. He is currently second in the NHL in goals-against average (1.77) and third in save percentage (.929).

"He's phenomenal. He comes up big all the time," teammate Daniel Winnik said.
Bryzgalov is, on average, the 17th goaltender selected in all Yahoo! fantasy league drafts. His average overall pick is 77.9, usually placing him in the seventh round.

Edmonton winger Dustin Penner recorded his sixth multi-point game of the season on Thursday, a wild 6-5 shootout victory against Detroit. Penner (13, 9-10-19, 82 percent) had a goal and 3 assists to leapfrog into third place in the League scoring race with 19 points, trailing only Alex Ovechkin and Anze Kopitar. Last season, Penner didn't record his 19th point until Jan. 3, needing 35 games to reach the mark. What a difference a year makes!

The Rangers have already confirmed that Marian Gaborik (12 games, 10-8-18, 99 percent), their leading scorer, is not going to make his highly anticipated return to Minnesota on Friday night, sitting out his second consecutive game with an undisclosed injury. "I would love to play for sure, but if I won't be able to go, I won't be able to go," Gaborik told the Daily News. "It is very frustrating ... but I'm not going to be stupid."

Unfortunately, another day, another significant injury in this month of fantasy carnage. The latest victim is Red Wings center Valtteri Filppula (11 games, 2-4-6, 9 percent) who broke his wrist in the loss at Edmonton. He is expected to miss six to eight weeks. "It's not good," Henrik Zetterberg told the Detroit Free Press. "It's tough to lose a player and especially Fil, he plays a lot of minutes and plays in all situations, so it's a tough break for us."

Down the middle the Red Wings have Pavel Datsyuk, Kris Draper, Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader. One of the latter three are usually scratched on a game-by-game basis. Or Babcock can take Zetterberg off Datsyuk's line and have him become the No. 2 center.

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that backup goalie Brent Johnson (1-1-0, 1.94 GAA, 3 percent) gets the start on Friday at Columbus and will be opposed by Steve Mason (5-4-0, 3.57 GAA, 91 percent). Starter Marc-Andre Fleury (9-1-0, 2.07 GAA, 98 percent) is expected to return to action on Saturday at home against Minnesota.

After watching backup Jaroslav Halak (4-2-0, 2.70 GAA, 36 percent) make five consecutive starts, Montreal's Carey Price (2-4-0, 3.50 GAA, 74 percent) gets the nod in goal on Friday at Chicago. Price hasn't posted a victory since Oct. 3. "(Price) started the season and he played some strong games for us," coach Jacques Martin told the Montreal Gazette. "(Jaroslav Halak) got the opportunity to play in five games and we're looking for Carey to help us win some games."

Martin is also changing the top two lines. Scott Gomez will center Brian Gionta and Andrei Kostitsyn, and Tomas Plekanec is flanked by Mike Cammalleri and Maxim Lapierre. "It's something we're trying," Martin said "I think Andrei has to play better but, at the same time, we're trying to get two lines that can give us some production."

According to the Raleigh News Observer, injured power forward Erik Cole is getting close to returning from the leg fracture that has sidelined him since Oct. 3. Cole (2, 0-0-0, 20 percent) practiced on Thursday and may return this weekend, said coach Paul Maurice. Carolina visits Philadelphia on Saturday and hosts San Jose on Sunday.

Jordan Staal (12, 3-2-5, 67 percent) may see his production and minutes increase while filling in at No. 2 center for the Penguins during Evgeni Malkin's absence with a strained shoulder. "We talk about the strength of our centermen, and people talk about Jordan Staal being a second centerman on another team," coach Bylsma told the Post-Gazette. "That's the strength of our team, and we're fortunate we have some depth at that position.

"We have enough quality forwards that we should be able to play a little bit differently, but we still should be all right."

On Thursday the Penguins recalled forward Chris Conner from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton of the AHL. He was leading the team in scoring with 8 points (2 goals, 6 assists) through seven games.

FRIDAY'S PROJECTED GOALIES:

NY Islanders (Dwayne Roloson) at Washington (Jose Theodore), 7:00 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh (Brent Johnson) at Columbus (Steve Mason), 7:00 p.m. ET
Toronto (Jonas Gustavsson) at Buffalo (Ryan Miller), 7:30 p.m. ET
NY Rangers (Henrik Lundqvist) at Minnesota (Niklas Backstrom), 8:00 p.m. ET
Montreal (Carey Price) at Chicago (Cristobal Huet), 8:30 p.m. ET
Florida (Tomas Vokoun) at Dallas (Alex Auld), 8:30 p.m. ET
Vancouver (Andrew Raycroft) at Anaheim (Jonas Hiller), 10:00 p.m. ET
Colorado (Craig Anderson) at San Jose (Evgeni Nabokov), 10:30 p.m. ET

RECENT INJURIES:

David Booth, LW, Florida: Is out indefinitely with a concussion.
Carlo Colaiacovo, D, St. Louis:  Is day-to-day with an upper-body injury.
Radek Dvorak, RW, Florida:  Is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Martin Erat, RW, Nashville:  Is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury.
Eric Fehr, RW, Washington:  Is day-to-day with an upper-body injury.
Valtteri Filppula, C, Detroit:  Will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken wrist.
Marian Gaborik, RW, NY Rangers: Is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury.
Simon Gagne, LW, Philadelphia:  Placed on injured reserve with a double hernia.
Jean-Sebastien Giguere, G, Anahiem:  Is day-to-day with a groin strain.
Josh Harding, G, Minnesota:  Is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Tyler Kennedy, RW, Pittsburgh:  Is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury.
D.J. King, LW, St. Louis:  Will be sidelined 8-10 weeks with a fracture/dislocation of the right hand.
Ilya Kovalchuk, LW, Atlanta:  Placed on injured reserve with a broken bone in his right foot.
Roberto Luongo, G, Vancouver:  Will miss a week with a hair line fracture to his rib.
Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh:  Will miss 2-3 weeks with a right shoulder strain.
Paul Martin, D, New Jersey:  Is out 4-6 weeks with a broken left arm.
Cody McLeod:  Placed on injured reserve with an eye injury.
Milan Michalek, LW, Ottawa:  Is day-to-day with an upper-body injury.
Jay Pandolfo, LW, New Jersey:  Is out 4-6 weeks with a dislocated shoulder.
Devin Setoguchi, RW, San Jose:  Is day-to-day with a leg injury.
Jason Spezza, C, Ottawa:  Is day-to-day with an upper-body injury.
Anton Volchenkov, D, Ottawa:  Is sidelined at least three weeks with a dislocated right elbow.
Kyle Wellwood, C, Vancouver:  Is day-to-day with a broken toe.

TRANSACTIONS:

Florida Panthers:  Recalled C Jeff Taffe from Rochester (AHL).
Los Angeles Kings:  Claimed D Randy Jones off of re-entry waivers from the Philadelphia Flyers. Placed D Alec Martinez on injured reserve retroactive to October 5.
Ottawa Senators:  Recalled D Brian Lee on an emergency basis from Binghamton (AHL).
Phoenix Coyotes:  Reassigned D Sean Sullivan to San Antonio (AHL).
Pittsburgh Penguins:  Recalled F Chris Conner from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL).
Toronto Maple Leafs:  Recalled F Jiri Tlusty from Toronto (AHL). Assigned G Joey MacDonald and F Viktor Stalberg to Toronto. Activated G Vesa Toskala from injured reserve.

NHL.COM EXPERTS LEAGUE:

Week 4 results through Oct. 29
Rocky Trottier 6 vs. Big Skillets O'BKLYN 4 (1 tie)
Skoula Hard Knocks 2 vs. Philly Cheesestakes 5 (4 ties)
Clown Shoes 2 vs. Hammerhead United 5 (4 ties)
Hempstead Slowpokes 4 vs. Code Monkeys 4 (3 ties)
The Birdcage 3 vs. No Shanahan-igans 6 (2 ties)
Ovi's Heroes 4 vs. Out on a Dan Hinote 5 (2 ties)

EMAIL OF THE DAY:

Would love to hear your opinion on my fantasy hockey situation. We're a 14-team points league, starting nine forwards, four defensemen, and two goalies with two bench spots.
Points awarded are: goals/assists/game-winning goals - 1 point; power-play and shorthanded points - 0.5 points; win - 2 points; shutout - 3 points.

I'm thinking of making some moves with some new faces hitting the waiver wire, and tertiary injuries causing me to make some reevaluations. Marco Sturm (Milan Lucic/Marc Savard), Steve Sullivan (Jason Arnott), Stephen Weiss (David Booth) and Jaroslav Spacek (Andrei Markov) have all had slow starts and injuries to their running mates. However, all four of these guys still get great minutes and a ton of power play time.

I am thinking of dropping Sullivan and Sturm for Derick Brassard and Claude Giroux. I like them as talented players whose skill will allow them to rise up the depth charts as the year goes on. The waiver wire includes other players: Daymond Langkow, Blake Wheeler, Shawn Horcoff, Dave Bolland, Chris Drury, R.J. Umberger and Jamie Benn. I'm looking to drop Spacek for either Derek Morris, Mathieu Schneider, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Tom Gilbert or Anton Stralman. 
What is more important in fantasy sports, the skill of the player or the position on the depth chart?
Thanks,
-- Neil from Wawa, Ontario

A challenging email. You can send me this same message every week and I'd probably give you different answers every week. The thing is, none of the players you mentioned have, in my opinion, long-term staying power in fantasy. They're all only as good as their most recent hot streak, and in some cases that doesn't last very long. These are mercenary types that are more helpful in head-to-head fantasy leagues, where a good two or three game week can have a huge impact, as opposed to rotisserie leagues, where the name of the game is steady, consistent production.

I wouldn't talk you out of cutting any of Sturm, Sullivan, Weiss or Spacek for the very reasons you mentioned. I do like the upside of Brassard and Giroux, but combined, they have accounted for the same exact scoring totals as Sturm and Sullivan -- 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points. Brassard's 2 power-play goals and 10 penalty minutes, and Philadelphia's high-powered offense (though I dislike their penchant for frequent line juggling) give the nod to the Brassard-Giroux duo. I would also approve Langkow (11 games, 2-4-6) though his minus-7 is alarming. I can't say I've seen enough of Stars rookie Jamie Benn to make an educated opinion, but he's the scoring leader of this motley crew with 3-6-9 in 12 games, with a plus-4 to boot. Bolland (10, 2-3-5) is doing very well in Chicago, but I think his game has more value to the Blackhawks than he contributes to fantasy.

On defense, Morris is the best of the lot (though I wouldn't have said that in the preseason) with 1-6-7 in 10 games. I'm scratching my head over Vlasic and Gilbert -- I was sure they'd continue to climb the fantasy ranks, but the youngsters are sputtering early on.

Your last question is quite tricky; there is no cut and dry answer. Most times, a player's skill is directly attached to his position on the depth chart. Other times, it's the size of his contract that determines his minutes. Also, a teams overall health can determine depth chart status. An example of that is Chuck Kobasew, a depth player in Boston traded to injury-ravaged Minnesota and now plays more minutes, but otherwise is not a usual top-six forward. So the answer to your question changes from team to team and player to player. But ultimately, I think I'd favor the player who gets the top-six minutes over the talented-but-buried-on-the-depth-chart player. You can't score if you're not on the ice.

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