Fantasy top 100 forwards: Positive regression trends

Every Tuesday during the season, NHL.com fantasy hockey insider Pete Jensen provides in-depth forward analysis. From updated weekly top-100 rankings to trending players and more, Jensen is your go-to guy for fantasy forward advice all season long.

The midway point of the season is an appropriate time to evaluate abnormally high and low shooting percentages and see where regression to the mean can help predict fantasy value.

Although there can be exceptions, history provides a strong indication of shooting percentage trends. Last season, the shooting percentage leader among those with 200-plus shots on goal was Steven Stamkos (16 percent), with no other player above 14.3. Two seasons ago, two players eclipsed 16 percent: Joe Pavelski (18.2) and Chris Kunitz (16.1).

At the midway point of 2015-16, nine players are on pace for more than 200 SOG with shooting rates above 16 percent. Three of them (Pavelski, 19.4; Mike Hoffman, 18.3; Jamie Benn, 18.1) are upwards of 18 percent, difficult to sustain with a high SOG volume. Regardless, these are three of the most valuable League-wide, and thus heavily owned in fantasy leagues.

On the flip side, five of 53 forwards with 200 or more SOG (Jeff Skinner, Henrik Zetterberg, Jason Pominville, Patrick Sharp, Nathan Gerbe) finished with a shooting percentage of less than 8.0 percent last season. Two seasons ago, seven qualifying players finished below that threshold. At the halfway mark this season, 13 forwards are shooting under that mark. That's likely to change for the better, and fantasy owners would be wise to take advantage.

Here are a few of those forwards with steady SOG volumes who could benefit from a shooting percentage correction in the second half. Line situations only help these players' chances of seeing positive regression.

Evander Kane, LW, Buffalo Sabres

Current linemates: Ryan O'Reilly, Jamie McGinn

Holding out hope for Kane to finally put it all together can pay fantasy dividends in Buffalo's final 40 games. He has missed 10 because of injury this season, and has bounced around the Sabres' top two lines, but still generates steady SOG production and ended his six-game pointless stretch with an assist Sunday against his former team, the Winnipeg Jets. Even with his inconsistencies and 6.8 shooting percentage, he averages nearly 3.7 SOG and 2.7 hits per game and plays on Buffalo's second power-play unit. Latching on with O'Reilly (36 points; T-23rd in NHL) is a starting point.

Patric Hornqvist, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins

Current linemates: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel

Hornqvist shot 11.4 percent last season and finished with 25 goals in 64 games, but is only converting on 7.1 percent of his attempts on net (127) through 41 games this season. After one power-play goal in his first 33 games this season, he has responded with three PPG in his past eight games, totaling four goals, two assists and 36 SOG in that span. He's back among Pittsburgh's top six and on its first power-play unit with Malkin, Kessel, Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang, which bodes well for a potential rebound.

Marian Hossa, RW, Chicago Blackhawks

Current linemates: Jonathan Toews, Andrew Shaw

Age (37) could be catching up to Hossa, who had a run of 10 percent shooting or better in every season since 1998-99 before dipping to 8.9 percent in 2014-15 and even lower this season (5.6). But Hossa scored twice Sunday against the Colorado Avalanche and is averaging 3.2 SOG per game, only slightly below his career average (3.3). He still plays with Toews at even strength and covers power-play points (seven) and rating (plus-9), so don't be surprised if he finishes among the top 50 fantasy assets -- which he has each of the past two seasons (41st in 2013-14, 33rd in 2014-15).

Jakub Voracek, RW, Philadelphia Flyers

Current linemates: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds

The Flyers' top six is finally shaping up, and positive regression from Voracek could go a long way as Philadelphia sits four points out of the second wild card spot into the Stanley Cup Playoffs from the Eastern Conference with games in hand over the teams in front of them. While Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn and Michael Raffl build chemistry on the second line, Voracek finds himself up top with Giroux and Simmonds, two of the League's best power-play producers in recent seasons. Voracek is on pace for 45 assists and 241 SOG, more than enough foundation for whenever his woeful shooting percentage (3.4) reverts.

Nazem Kadri, C, Toronto Maple Leafs

Current linemates: Leo Komarov, Michael Grabner

The injury to James van Riemsdyk puts added pressure on the Kadri-Komarov line (see Fantasy Spin), but Kadri is averaging more than 3.5 SOG per game and has at least a point in nine of his past 11 games. He should gain even more power-play exposure with JVR sidelined, and he's still only shooting 5.7 percent. He's a second-half sleeper at 33 percent owned.

Jonathan Huberdeau, C/LW, Florida Panthers

Current linemates: Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov

Huberdeau has at least a point in four straight games, at least a goal in three of them, a plus-2 in three of them, and multipoint efforts in two of them. He's been well overdue for a shooting percentage correction and it's finally materializing. He plays with Jagr and Barkov on the power play and at even strength, so it's safe to anticipate a further uptick for Huberdeau in goals and power-play points in the second half.

TRENDING UP

Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles Kings

Kopitar is sticking with Tyler Toffoli and Milan Lucic despite the return of Jeff Carter, who's playing with Tanner Pearson and Marian Gaborik. Why is no one saying a peep about Kings coach Darryl Sutter moving Carter away from his usual linemates? Kopitar has more points than any player League-wide since the NHL's Christmas break, with three goals and 12 assists in nine games. He had his second four-point game in that stretch Monday against the Detroit Red Wings, with an assist on Toffoli's goal to go along with two power-play points. He's covering five of the six standard-league categories and has overcome the slow start to his contract year. The Kings are still a top-five team in the NHL despite Carter missing nearly two weeks with injury -- thanks to Kopitar's surge.

TRENDING DOWN

Two of the Triplets

The once-coveted line in Tampa Bay has been one of the most disappointing League-wide based on fantasy expectations. The trio of Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat combined for 61 points in the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs and each posted 60 or more in the 2014-15 regular season. While Johnson and Palat have only played 29 and 22 of the Lightning's 42 games respectively, each is averaging fewer than .50 points per game (Johnson .41, Palat .36 in 2015-16) after nearly one per game apiece last season (Johnson .94, Palat .84 in 2014-15). The trio has been healthy for four straight games but is still quiet and being broken up regularly. The only glimmer of hope that they could turn it around in the second half is that Kucherov is on fire. Since Dec. 5, only Patrick Kane (21 in 18 games) and Kopitar (21 in 18) have more points than Kucherov (20 in 16 games), an encouraging sign to cut Johnson and Palat more slack as they return to full strength.

KEEP AN EYE ON

Micheal Ferland, LW/RW, Calgary Flames

Jiri Hudler has missed three straight games with a groin injury and Ferland played on Calgary's top line with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan in the veteran's absence Monday. Ferland, two percent owned, scored a late power-play goal and had an even-strength assist on Monahan's goal in the first period. He saw 2:34 with the man-advantage and posted two SOG and seven hits in a season-high 20:55 of ice time. Hudler has 20 points and a minus-10 in 35 games after 76 points and a plus-17 in 78 games, so there's a chance Ferland, 23, can stick in this spot if he builds off his breakout performance.

WORTH NOTING

-- With Paul Stastny day-to-day and Magnus Paajarvi injured, the St. Louis Blues reunited Jori Lehtera (eight percent) and Vladimir Tarasenko at practice Monday. Rounding out that line was Robby Fabbri (two percent owned), one of eight rookies with 10 goals this season. Lehtera had 44 points in 75 games with a plus-21 last season alongside mostly Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz, who's not expected to return from injury until after the All-Star break.

-- Chris Kreider returned Monday for the New York Rangers and played the majority of his ice time alongside Kevin Hayes and Jesper Fast in a third-line role. Kreider only logged 11:47 of ice time against the Boston Bruins with no points, two SOG and four hits. Kreider has taken a big step back with six goals in 40 games after 21 in 80 last season. Jayson Megna (with Rick Nash and Derek Stepan) and J.T. Miller (with Mats Zuccarello and Derick Brassard) retained spots among New York's top six.

TOP 100 FANTASY FORWARDS

These rankings are based on expectations for this season. Value is quantified by line combinations, power-play usage, past performance and overall upside in standard Yahoo categories (goals, assists, plus-minus, penalty minutes, power-play points and shots on goal).

1	Patrick Kane, C/RW, CHI (SAME)	51	Pavel Datsyuk, C/LW, DET (+3)
2	Alex Ovechkin, LW/RW, WSH (+2)	52	Kyle Turris, C, OTT (-5)
3	Tyler Seguin, C/RW, DAL (-1)	53	Sean Monahan, C, CGY (+3)
4	Jamie Benn, LW, DAL (-1)	54	Leon Draisaitl, C/RW, EDM (-2)
5	Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, STL (SAME)	55	Aleksander Barkov, C, FLA (+10)
6	Evgeni Malkin, C/RW, PIT (SAME)	56	Logan Couture, C/LW, SJS (-1)
7	Sidney Crosby, C, PIT (SAME)	57	Joe Thornton, C, SJS (+16)
8	Joe Pavelski, C/LW/RW, SJS (+2)	58	Tyler Johnson, C, TBL (SAME)
9	Taylor Hall, C/LW, EDM (-1)	59	Brad Marchand, LW, BOS (SAME)
10	Claude Giroux, C/RW, PHI (-1)	60	Wayne Simmonds, LW/RW, PHI (SAME)
11	Max Pacioretty, LW, MTL (SAME)	61	Tomas Plekanec, C, MTL (+1)
12	Daniel Sedin, LW, VAN (SAME)	62	Max Domi, C/LW, ARI (-4)
13	Nicklas Backstrom, C, WSH (+1)	63	Scott Hartnell, LW, CBJ (SAME)
14	Steven Stamkos, C, TBL (+1)	64	Jack Eichel, C, BUF (+2)
15	Nathan MacKinnon, C/RW, COL (+1)	65	Loui Eriksson, LW/RW, BOS (-4)
16	Patrick Sharp, C/LW/RW, DAL (+4)	66	David Backes, C/RW, STL (-1)
17	Patrice Bergeron, C, BOS (SAME)	67	Kyle Okposo, RW, NYI (+1)
18	Evgeny Kuznetsov, C/LW, WSH (SAME)	68	Derick Brassard, C, NYR (+6)
19	John Tavares, C, NYI (-6)	69	Milan Lucic, LW, LAK (+3)
20	Corey Perry, RW, ANA (+1)	70	Andrew Ladd, LW, WPG (SAME)
21	Zach Parise, LW, MIN (+1)	71	Mark Stone, RW, OTT (SAME)
22	Blake Wheeler, RW, WPG (-3)	72	Mats Zuccarello, LW/RW, NYR (-3)
23	Johnny Gaudreau, LW, CGY (+1)	73	Jonathan Huberdeau, C/LW, FLA (+15)
24	Alexander Steen, C/LW, STL (-1)	74	Tomas Tatar, LW/RW, DET (+5)
25	Matt Duchene, C/LW, COL (+3)	75	Kyle Palmieri, LW/RW, NJD (SAME)
26	Ryan Johansen, C/RW, NSH (+3)	76	Bryan Little, C/RW, WPG (+2)
27	Anze Kopitar, C, LAK (+9)	77	Justin Williams, RW, WSH (+5)
28	Rick Nash, LW/RW, NYR (-2)	78	Eric Staal, C/LW, CAR (-1)
29	Henrik Zetterberg, C/LW, DET (-4)	79	Gustav Nyquist, C/LW/RW, DET (-3)
30	Jonathan Toews, C, CHI (+2)	80	Mikko Koivu, C, MIN (SAME)
31	Artemi Panarin, LW, CHI (+3)	81	Marian Hossa, RW, CHI (+4)
32	Jason Spezza, C, DAL (+3)	82	Victor Rask, C, CAR (DTD)
33	Jeff Carter, C/RW, LAK (-6)	83	Patrick Marleau, C/LW, SJS (SAME)
34	Ryan Getzlaf, C, ANA (-4)	84	Jordan Eberle, RW, EDM (SAME)
35	Jakub Voracek, RW, PHI (-4)	85	Nazem Kadri, C, TOR (NEW)
36	Nikita Kucherov, RW, TBL (+8)	86	Evander Kane, LW, BUF (SAME)
37	Phil Kessel, RW, PIT (-4)	87	Chris Kunitz, LW, PIT (SAME)
38	Ryan O'Reilly, C/LW/RW, BUF (+2)	88	Mikkel Boedker, LW, ARI (+5)
39	Tyler Toffoli, C/LW/RW, LAK (+4)	89	Ryan Spooner, C/LW, BOS (+8)
40	Brendan Gallagher, RW, MTL (-3)	90	Boone Jenner, C/RW, CBJ (+1)
41	Gabriel Landeskog, LW, COL (+1)	91	Jarome Iginla, RW, COL (+1)
42	Filip Forsberg, C/LW/RW, NSH (+3)	92	Chris Kreider, LW, NYR (-3)
43	Bobby Ryan, LW/RW, OTT (-4)	93	Lee Stempniak, LW/RW, NJD (-3)
44	Henrik Sedin, C, VAN (+2)	94	Martin Hanzal, C, ARI (NR - INJ.)
45	Brandon Saad, LW/RW, CBJ (-4)	95	Ondrej Palat, LW, TBL (SAME)
46	James Neal, LW/RW, NSH (+3)	96	Shane Doan, LW/RW, ARI (SAME)
47	Mike Hoffman, C/LW, OTT (+1)	97	Alex Galchenyuk, C/LW, MTL (-2)
48	Jaromir Jagr, RW, FLA (+5)	98	Leo Komarov, C/LW, TOR (DTD)
49	T.J. Oshie, C/RW, WSH (+2)	99	Brandon Dubinsky, C/LW, CBJ (NEW)
50	Dylan Larkin, C/LW, DET (SAME)	100	Carl Soderberg, C/LW, COL (NEW)

Just missed: Patric Hornqvist (RW, PIT), Frans Nielsen (C, NYI), Adam Henrique (C/LW, NJD), Thomas Vanek (LW/RW, MIN), Mark Scheifele (C, WPG, DTD), Alexander Wennberg (C, CBJ), Justin Abdelkader (LW/RW, DET), Cam Atkinson (RW, CBJ), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (C, EDM), Sam Reinhart (C, BUF), Anders Lee (C/LW, NYI), Artem Anisimov (C/LW, CHI), Tomas Hertl (C/LW, SJS), Ryan Kesler (C/RW, ANA), Marian Gaborik (RW, LAK)

Dropped out: Scheifele, Tyler Bozak

Key injuries: David Krejci (C, BOS), Connor McDavid (C, EDM), Mike Cammalleri (C/LW, NJD), James van Riemsdyk (LW, TOR), Nick Foligno (C/LW, CBJ), Jaden Schwartz (LW, STL), Jannik Hansen (RW, VAN)

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