Fantasy Hockey Draft Rankings, Advice and Analysis

Fantasy top 30 goalies: Don't doubt Bruins' Rask

Thursday, 02.19.2015 / 12:15 PM
Evan Sporer - NHL.com Staff Writer

Every Thursday during the season, NHL.com's Evan Sporer will provide you with in-depth analysis of goaltenders. From updated weekly top 30 rankings to trending players and more, Sporer will be your go-to guy for advice on fantasy goalies all season long.

For Tuukka Rask, it was a matter of when, not if.

There are many factors out of a goaltender's control that affect his play. A lot needs to happen before a team can generate a scoring chance, and for the most part none of that has to do with a goaltender, down to which of his teammates are on the ice.

It's part of what makes goaltending a bit unpredictable, but as far as repeatability goes Rask has been one of the more consistent and one of the best goalies in all of hockey recently. Rask is quite good at his job, but thanks to some missing co-workers, and a bit of un-Rask-like play, many fantasy owners were scratching their heads when it came to the Boston Bruins goalie early this season.

Three stalwarts during Rask's Bruins tenure have been centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, and defenseman Zdeno Chara. They're part of a Bruins foundation that has led the team to success over the past the past eight or so years, coupled with strong goaltending.

Chara has been a rock on the blue line, unquestionably the top defenseman in a post-Nicklas Lidstrom NHL. Bergeron is the one of the top-two best defensive forwards on the planet. And Krejci is no slouch either, a very capable driver of possession and a player who, when on the ice, tends to see his team score much more than it is scored on and who also allows coach Claude Julien to get the matchups he wants.

But this season, the Bruins went long stretches without Chara and Krejci. Combined, the pair has missed 39 games. For an 82-game schedule, Chara is already guaranteed to play in his lowest number of games as a Bruin, and Krejci will play his lowest number since he appeared in 56 as a rookie.

All of this affected Rask, and did so rather adversely.

To say Chara is important to the Bruins is a pretty modest understatement. From when Chara joined the Bruins in 2006-07 to today, the team has scored 56.7 percent of all goals at even strength when Chara is in the game, according to War-On-Ice.com. When Chara is off the ice that number dips by 4.5 percent.

So while this is about Rask, it's also about Chara, and even Krejci. Losing your No. 1 defenseman and arguably your No. 1 center will take its toll, and it did on Rask this season. The following shows the differences in Rask's save percentage with and without Chara and Krejci this season.

- Rask with Chara and Krejci: 13-7-6; .923 save percentage

- Rask with only Chara: 1-3-2; .911 save percentage

- Rask with only Krejci: 3-1-0; .948 save percentage

- Rask without Chara and Krejci: 6-4-1; .911 save percentage

The inclusion of the games with only Chara and only Krejci are to round out the sample. In the six games played with only Chara, Rask faced the Chicago Blackhawks, Nashville Predators, Washington Capitals and Detroit Red Wings. In the four games with only Krejci, he faced the Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers and Minnesota Wild.

But the noticeable difference is in Rask's save percentage when he has both players in the lineup versus when he has neither. While his record doesn't necessarily reflect a drop-off, a save percentage 12 points lower and 15 points below his career average is significant. Rask's numbers with both Chara and Krejci in the lineup are almost identical to what he's averaged throughout his career.

Which is why it was also unfair, and downright premature to ever question Rask at any point this season. Goaltending can fluctuate; no goalie goes out and stops the same number of pucks every night. Rask is a career .926 goalie, meaning there will be nights when he falls below that mark, and nights when he stops pucks at a higher rate. Through the early part of the schedule, Rask was adjusting to life without two major Bruins pieces, and perhaps wasn't playing up to his own standards. Now with a full complement of characters, Rask is again playing like a top goaltender in the League.

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TRENDING UP

Cory Schneider, New Jersey Devils -- This is the Schneider many expected to see entering this season, taking over the starting role for the Devils. He has a .946 save percentage over his past 10 starts, going 5-3-1 over that stretch. New Jersey may be sellers heading toward the 2015 NHL Trade Deadline, but regardless of how many wins his team puts up down the stretch, Schneider appears to be settling into a groove and capable of posting good numbers.

TRENDING DOWN

Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning -- Whether it's been due to Bishop's play or the emergence of rookie Andrei Vasilevskiy, coach Jon Cooper has been giving Bishop fewer starts lately. Over Tampa Bay's past eight games, Bishop has played five times, and Vasilevskiy three. Bishop turned in a strong performance Wednesday against the Anaheim Ducks, making 24 saves on 25 shots to pick up a win. More of those and he'll quell any doubt that might exist as to who should be getting the majority of starts in Tampa's crease.

KEEP AN EYE ON

Jhonas Enroth, Dallas Stars -- What the Stars' plan is with their newly acquired goaltender is unclear. Kari Lehtonen still appears to be the starter, but Enroth could push for more playing time. And with the Stars desperate to accumulate points and climb into a wild-card spot, coach Lindy Ruff is going to go with whoever gives the team the best chance to win.

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TOP 30 FANTASY GOALIES

These modified re-rankings are a projection of a goalie's fantasy output for the entire season. Our ranks are based on volume categories like games played, wins, saves, goals-against average (GAA) and save percentage (SV%). The plus or minus for each player is movement based on our most recent rankings from last week (NR means not ranked in previous rankings). It is important to note that our rankings reflect sheer fantasy value, not talent. A less-talented goalie could be ranked higher due to their team's strong defense and offense.

1. Carey Price, MTL (SAME)

2. Pekka Rinne, NSH (SAME)

3. Tuukka Rask, BOS (SAME)

4. Marc-Andre Fleury, PIT (+1)

5. Brian Elliott, STL (-1)

6. Braden Holtby, WSH (+2)

7. Corey Crawford, CHI (-1)

8. Roberto Luongo, FLA (-1)

9. Jaroslav Halak, NYI (SAME)

10. Ryan Miller, VAN (+1)

11. Ben Bishop, TBL (-1)

12. Cory Schneider, NJD (+2)