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Updated playoff projections: March 26th

Monday, 03.26.2012 / 10:17 AM

By Craig Button - Special to NHL.com / On the Playoff Button blog

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On the Playoff Button blog
Updated playoff projections: March 26th
NHL Network's Craig Button has been tracking playoff positioning -- using a variety of statistical categories -- for several years now. His formula, while not a true probability exercise, has proven to be very effective at predicting the cutoff number to secure a Stanley Cup Playoffs berth.

In its simplest terms, Button's formula uses a team's current winning percentage, factoring in games remaining, to arrive at the number of wins -- and points -- each team will finish the season with. From that exercise, the formula can extrapolate the magic number for qualification and which teams currently in the race will reach that number. This equation will also determine tiebreakers should they become necessary.

Still not convinced? Check out the full explanation of Button's formula

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Current
Position
NHL
Team
Games
Played
Current
Points
Games
Remaining
Projected
Points
Wins to
earn 8th
8th 76 84 6 90 4

9th 76 84 6 90 4
10th 75 78 7 85 7
 
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Current
Position
NHL
Team
Games
Played
Current
Points
Games
Remaining
Projected
Points
Wins to
earn 8th
8th 75 86 7 93 5

9th 75 86 7 93 5
10th 77 86 5 91 5
11th 76 83 6 88 6
The skinny: It could be a "bloody" Monday for a few teams chasing a Stanley Cup Playoff spot.

In Winnipeg, the Jets will host the Ottawa Senators in a game that will decide if Winnipeg's playoff hopes remain vibrant or if the "fat lady" starts singing. The math is very simple for Winnipeg. They have seven games remaining, including Monday night, and are six points behind Washington for the No. 8 spot. Buffalo is also six points ahead of Winnipeg and plays Washington Tuesday night, meaning one of those teams is guaranteed two points. If the Jets lose Monday, they are guaranteed to wake up Wednesday eight points out with six games to play. That's not where they want to be.

The advanced math is no kinder. Presently, the projections suggest that it will take 91 points to qualify in the East. The Jets have 78, meaning they max out at 92 if they run the table. Lose Monday and 90 points becomes the max. Winning is the only option left for Winnipeg.

In the West, the projection for the eighth spot remains 94 points.

The Calgary Flames, who finish a home-and-home against the Dallas Stars after losing Saturday's opening half of the back-to-back showdown, are also in must-win mode. If Calgary wins each of its six remaining games, it will reach 95 points, one above the projected cut-off.

Fall short Monday against the Stars in this last stand and the Flames will be nearly assured of sitting out the playoffs for the third consecutive season. There is a big difference between mathematical possibility and probability. The possibility is remote with a loss by the Flames Monday -- the probability is nil. In a nutshell, the teams the Flames must overtake to qualify for the playoffs face each other at some point down the stretch, so there is no possibility that the teams the Flames are chasing will stay static in points.

San Jose plays Dallas & Los Angeles two times each. Phoenix and Colorado play San Jose once each. The math does not favor the Flames with a loss Monday. But with a 0-2-3 record in their past five games, the Flames didn't do themselves any favors either.

Colorado has five games remaining, so the Avalanche are fighting a two-front battle against the schedule, as well as their opponents.

Colorado can attain a maximum of 96 points. Lose to the Sharks on Monday and the Avs' margin for error falls to zero with four games remaining in the final 12 days of the season. That leaves a lot of off days to watch and hope for help from other teams. Like the Flames, the probability moves closer to nil because of the schedule and the fact that teams they will be chasing play one another.

The Avalanche don't have a lot of wiggle room, but beating San Jose moves them closer to the projected 94 points and also moves them two points clear of the Sharks, who have two games in hand.

In Vancouver, the Kings begin a four-game road trip having won six of their past seven games. This has put Los Angeles in a good position, controlling its playoff destiny. A loss to the Canucks, coupled with a Calgary win against Dallas, sets up an interesting showdown in Calgary on Wednesday between the Kings and Flames. Lose there and the Kings could easily be back in the "chasing" category instead of the "control" category.

The other aspect to Monday is the "bury your opponent" aspect. The Senators, Stars and Sharks can effectively end their Monday opponent's playoff hopes with victories, which is only added incentive if there is any needed.

Monday's scenarios certainly give different meaning to "blood" sport.
Quote of the Day

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