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Updated playoff projections: March 19th

Monday, 03.19.2012 / 9:20 AM

By Craig Button - Special to NHL.com / On the Playoff Button blog

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On the Playoff Button blog
Updated playoff projections: March 19th
NHL Network's Craig Button has been tracking playoff positioning -- using a variety of statistical categories -- for several years now. His formula, while not a true probability exercise, has proven to be very effective at predicting the cutoff number to secure a Stanley Cup Playoffs berth.

In its simplest terms, Button's formula uses a team's current winning percentage, factoring in games remaining, to arrive at the number of wins -- and points -- each team will finish the season with. From that exercise, the formula can extrapolate the magic number for qualification and which teams currently in the race will reach that number. This equation will also determine tiebreakers should they become necessary.

Still not convinced? Check out the full explanation of Button's formula

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Current
Position
NHL
Team
Games
Played
Current
Points
Games
Remaining
Projected
Points
Wins to
earn 8th
8th 72 78 10 88 6

9th 72 76 10 85 7
10th 72 76 10 85 7
11th 73 73 9 80 8
 
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Current
Position
NHL
Team
Games
Played
Current
Points
Games
Remaining
Projected
Points
Wins to
earn 8th
8th 74 83 8 91 6

9th 71 82 11 93 6
10th 72 82 10 92 6
11th 73 81 9 89 7
The skinny: The race for No. 8 in the East is the focus Monday.

Mike Fisher of the Nashville Predators was recently asked about the Stanley Cup Playoff race and said, "We are looking at the scoreboard and checking out what teams are doing." You can bet the Buffalo Sabres were tuned in to the Winnipeg-Carolina game Sunday night.

Not that teams root against one another, but I can't imagine under any circumstance that Buffalo wouldn't be euphoric about the late goal by Chad Larose to give the Sabres -- I mean the Hurricanes -- a big victory! Now, the Sabres must take advantage of that gift from the Hurricanes when they face the Lightning in Tampa on Monday.

A win, combined with a Washington loss at Detroit on the same night, and the Sabres will move into a points tie with the Capitals for the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference. The Sabres would still be on the outside looking in because they don't own the tie-breaker at this point, but Buffalo would be in control of its destiny because it plays at Washington on March 27. A win there and perhaps Buffalo will hold its fate in its own hands.

Interestingly enough, last season on this exact date, the Sabres were in the eighth playoff position  with the same amount of points (76), and the team is now hoping to follow a similar script this season with another strong surge after the All-Star break to help a lost season turn into an unexpected qualification for the playoffs.

As for the Capitals, they don't have the easiest schedule for trying to hold on to that No. 8 spot. Less than 24 hours after losing in Chicago, the Caps are back at it, trying to beat a Detroit team that may be struggling, but has been very good at Joe Louis Arena.

Then, it's a road date at Philadelphia on Thursday before hosting the Winnipeg Jets on Friday.

Looking at the projection, the Caps most likely need to win six of their remaining ten games to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That's definitely a tall order. It becomes increasingly more difficult if Washington can't win in Detroit and the City of Brotherly Love. Then, the equation changes to this: The Caps would need to win six of its final eight games with the Jets and Sabres among the opponents.

The silver lining for Washington is it holds the tiebreaker with more regulation and OT wins than both Winnipeg and Buffalo.

It's all madness of a different kind in March and the intensity the Stanley Cup Playoffs brings has certainly started early.
Quote of the Day

I didn't even know how to celebrate. I threw my hands up, they gave me a hug, so I guess that's all I needed.

— Sabres forward Tim Schaller on scoring his first NHL goal Sunday against the Bruins